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New Slalom Tugs at the Show

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Riley View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Riley Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February-22-2023 at 10:45am
We went to the Boston boat show last Saturday..  No slalom boats.  They had a Paragon that was on sale for $380k.  My son spoke with a loan guy about buying it.  $80k down and $2100/month for 20 years.  I saw a nice center console for $210k.  Sign said 10% down and $1200/month.  Did not say how many years.  If we have a serious downturn, there's going to be a lot of used boats on the market.  Don't know when that might happen.  High interest rates don't seem to be impacting anything much around here. 

My favorite boat was a 14' outboard runabout with classic lines and a 50 hp Merc.  Was thinking it would be a great boat for $15-$20k.  Boat show price was $46,900.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hansel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February-26-2023 at 8:26am
There is another hypothesis I favor, that cuts against some of the stuff I said earlier. It can be summed up in a phrase many of us have probably heard or said ourselves,

"They ain't making any more shoreline."

Of course, this isn't strictly true since new dams do generate a LOT more shoreline. But my guess is that most places that could have a large dam with a lake behind them already do. So we can safely assume that there is a relatively fixed supply of this part of the equation.

On the other hand, we are making more people. A LOT more people. Just since I was born (closing in on 40) there are 100 MILLION more people in the US; a 40% increase from ~235M to ~331M. On top of that, wage gains have been highly unequal since the 80s meaning that while the lower 80% or so of the population have about the same wealth (adjusted for inflation) the top 20% have reaped nearly all the gains in economic growth.

So we've got a LOT more people a good portion of which have a LOT more money all clamoring for other things like waterfront property they "ain't making more of"; neighborhoods, ski slopes, prestigious colleges, etc.

I think the "law" of supply and demand accounts for much/most of the inflation in the cost of those goods and services I mentioned, along with many many others. Since we've already crossed well into the $125k+ for a ski tug range now, I'd say under "Business As Usual" (e.g., no major and prolonged economic crash) we've got no more than 10 years before that number doubles to $250k (~7%+ price change per year, which seems conservative). And under BAU the top model wakeboard boats should hit $1M no later than ~2045, though my guess would be something more like 15 years from now.
"The only prudence in fishermen is that designed to set the stage for taking yet another, and perhaps a longer, chance." -Aldo Leopold
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63 Skier View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote 63 Skier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February-26-2023 at 1:19pm
Originally posted by Hansel Hansel wrote:

There is another hypothesis I favor, that cuts against some of the stuff I said earlier. It can be summed up in a phrase many of us have probably heard or said ourselves,

"They ain't making any more shoreline."

Of course, this isn't strictly true since new dams do generate a LOT more shoreline. But my guess is that most places that could have a large dam with a lake behind them already do. So we can safely assume that there is a relatively fixed supply of this part of the equation.

On the other hand, we are making more people. A LOT more people. Just since I was born (closing in on 40) there are 100 MILLION more people in the US; a 40% increase from ~235M to ~331M. On top of that, wage gains have been highly unequal since the 80s meaning that while the lower 80% or so of the population have about the same wealth (adjusted for inflation) the top 20% have reaped nearly all the gains in economic growth.

So we've got a LOT more people a good portion of which have a LOT more money all clamoring for other things like waterfront property they "ain't making more of"; neighborhoods, ski slopes, prestigious colleges, etc.

I think the "law" of supply and demand accounts for much/most of the inflation in the cost of those goods and services I mentioned, along with many many others. Since we've already crossed well into the $125k+ for a ski tug range now, I'd say under "Business As Usual" (e.g., no major and prolonged economic crash) we've got no more than 10 years before that number doubles to $250k (~7%+ price change per year, which seems conservative). And under BAU the top model wakeboard boats should hit $1M no later than ~2045, though my guess would be something more like 15 years from now.


Great post Jamin, you really make a great case for why these boats sell.  In my earlier post I said there's lots of people with stupid amounts of money, you spent the time to really put details to the argument.
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Hansel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hansel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February-26-2023 at 7:54pm
Originally posted by 63 Skier 63 Skier wrote:


Great post Jamin, you really make a great case for why these boats sell.  In my earlier post I said there's lots of people with stupid amounts of money, you spent the time to really put details to the argument.


Thanks David. I spent many years on state flagship university campuses, some of that pondering how they'd changed in the past and what they might look like in the future. I've also spent a potentially unhealthy amount of time reading and thinking about population growth as it relates to, well, nearly everything (especially things like politics in a society where the population has increased dramatically but the rules that govern our systems have not changed much, if at all). So I have a lot of sunk time costs on this line of argument already, and happy to support your point with some numbers ;)
"The only prudence in fishermen is that designed to set the stage for taking yet another, and perhaps a longer, chance." -Aldo Leopold
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 1980SN2001 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-06-2023 at 11:56am
Coming from someone who makes decent money, I would never be able to afford these prices nor would I want to spend that kind of money on a boat. More power to those who can afford them. My guess is I’m not the demographic these manufactures are after. It’s like someone said earlier they are marketing to the customers that want the newest and shiniest and the price isn’t much of a concern. I look at the new touch screen dashes and all the electronics and I just see something that would have to be repaired at the dealer adding to the cost of ownership diminishing the appeal to me. I have 3 young boys and wanted to introduce them to water sports so I picked up a 1980 Ski Nautique, have about $11,000 into it now and it will serve our purpose perfectly for a long time to come. This boat being less than 19’6” means it fits into my garage, also reducing the cost of ownerhsip as I don’t have to pay for indoor storage which in my area is at least $250/month. I guess I’m just grateful that CC made these boats so well that they are still a viable option 43 years later. I’m also thankful for this community of CC owners and fans as you guys are a large part(in my eyes) why a lot of these boats are still on the water. I know I came back here time and again for information, tips, reference etc. while I was working on my boat. Water sports shouldn’t be for the super rich and it doesn’t have to be if you’re willing to do the work and rehab these quality old boats. But I know that’s not for everyone as well…😕
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63 Skier View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 63 Skier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-06-2023 at 12:17pm
James, that just isn't going to work, everyone knows you can't pull kids on skis or boards behind an $11,000 boat.  Have to spend a minimum of 6 figures. LOL

You took the approach of most people here, and you're right, the quality of the boats lets us enjoy affordable ones built quite a while ago.  If you choose to you could move up a few decades over the years, maybe to a mid '90's NWZ and then to an early 2000's SN, and still be working within a reasonable budget.  I'm not saying you should, just that all of us have that option and get to drive really great boats at a fraction of the new prices.

I do wonder a bit about 20 years from now, what will people that want a used boat in an affordable price range have for buying options.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jonny Quest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-06-2023 at 9:36pm
Last year, my wife (a.k.a. the Supreme Commander) gave me the approval to order a new Ski Nautique 200 from the factory.  I thought about it for less than 1 second.  No.

Did I want it?  Sure.  Did I need it?  No.  Would I ski better behind it as compared to my 2001 SNOB with TSC1 hull?  Doubtful.  Would it enhance my on-the-water enjoyment?  Yes.  But, not $100,000+ worth of extra enjoyment.

I'll be keeping "Miss March" for years to come.  

Now the concept of a warmed-up & stroked SBF making 400 ponies may get my attention...
JQ
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2003 Ski Nautique 206 Limited

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1994 Ski Nautique Open Bow

Aqua skiing, ergo sum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MrMcD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-07-2023 at 11:50am
JQ, you could build and blow up about 25 of the 400+ horsepower engines for less than the cost of the brand new Nautique.   As I age we are using our boat less and less unfortunately.   The old 1995 will last until I no longer need a boat.   Kids and Grandkids will get to learn to ski behind it and enjoy it but replacement is not in my future.   
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63 Skier View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 63 Skier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-07-2023 at 12:03pm
Originally posted by Jonny Quest Jonny Quest wrote:

Last year, my wife (a.k.a. the Supreme Commander) gave me the approval to order a new Ski Nautique 200 from the factory.  I thought about it for less than 1 second.  No.

Did I want it?  Sure.  Did I need it?  No.  Would I ski better behind it as compared to my 2001 SNOB with TSC1 hull?  Doubtful.  Would it enhance my on-the-water enjoyment?  Yes.  But, not $100,000+ worth of extra enjoyment.

I'll be keeping "Miss March" for years to come.  

Now the concept of a warmed-up & stroked SBF making 400 ponies may get my attention...
JQ


Wait, your wife gave approval for WHAT???  Tongue

I agree.  I doubt I'll find a need or want to replace my boat, you never know but I don't think so.  I'll likely end up re-powering in some way when the GT-40 gets too quirky, but beyond that it does everything I want.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 1980SN2001 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-08-2023 at 9:40am
Originally posted by 63 Skier 63 Skier wrote:

James, that just isn't going to work, everyone knows you can't pull kids on skis or boards behind an $11,000 boat.  Have to spend a minimum of 6 figures. LOL

You took the approach of most people here, and you're right, the quality of the boats lets us enjoy affordable ones built quite a while ago.  If you choose to you could move up a few decades over the years, maybe to a mid '90's NWZ and then to an early 2000's SN, and still be working within a reasonable budget.  I'm not saying you should, just that all of us have that option and get to drive really great boats at a fraction of the new prices.

I do wonder a bit about 20 years from now, what will people that want a used boat in an affordable price range have for buying options.


Thanks David, I'm happy to be a part of the CC owners club! I fell in love with this boat the moment I saw it and to me it was the kind of boat worth putting money into and repairing. Again due in part to this site and the members. I saw there was a following for these boats and it made me more confident and comfortable in pulling the trigger on a project like this.

When I was approaching the $10K mark in repairs on my boat I started looking around(I don't recommend this when you've already gotten to a point of no return lol) on craigslist for comparable boats in that price range and there was a BEAUTIFULLY maintained 94SN(NWZ?) a couple hours away. He was asking $13,500 which I though was a great price for the condition and considering I was fast approaching that number with my own project. But you're right, it is in the back of my mind to upgrade to mid 90's then eventually to a 2000's SN. Hopefully someday a SNOB as a little more real estate inside would be nice with the wife and 3 boys.

I got her out on the water and finally ironed out some issues I was having and now I'm just waiting for the weather to get better and the water to warm up so I can start using it! It won't stop raining here in northern California... What's the weather like there in NH? When does your water skiing season start? How late in the year do you water ski?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 63 Skier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-08-2023 at 12:22pm
We had a foot of snow last Friday/Saturday, still a long way to go till ski season.  Generally I'll have a boat in the water in May, might ski on a nice day if people are around, but weekly skiing doesn't start until some time in June.  We go into September and occasionally ski into October.

Relatively short season unless you push it with the cold water spring and fall.  We'll be boating over 6 months, May through October, but maybe not skiing at both ends.
'63 American Skier - '98 Sport Nautique
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tomrupp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-08-2023 at 12:45pm
The wake on the new Ski Nautique barely there with some mild prop wash. It’s pretty remarkable. I’ve only seen this on YouTube reviews, but I’d love to ski behind it. I’m sticking with the 94 snob, but those micro tuners are intriguing. The prices are wild on all CC models but these boats are incredible. I’m so glad they are still making the SN and the 200. The used market keeps moving up as the new market prices soar.
Tom
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95 Double Decker Aqua Patio with 50hp Honda (3 carbs).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MrMcD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-21-2023 at 3:23pm
I was at the Rancho Cordova CA Nautique Dealer last week.  They had 5 Paragon's on the lot.  This was just days after the Sacramento Boat show so maybe they were only there for the show.  Very large beautiful boat.   I was pulling my buddy's Cobalt 273 and parked right next to the Paragon.   The 27' Cobalt looked small next to it.  They have a massive indoor storage facility at this dealership and my buddy is storing his boat there.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fl Inboards Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-22-2023 at 9:50am
MrMcD  Tell Bob I said Hi!
Hobby Boats can be expensive when the hobbyist is limited on their own skill and expertise.




1993 Shamrock "fat" 20. 2008 Nautique 196 5.0
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MrMcD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March-22-2023 at 12:50pm
I will try to do that.   Bob is a great guy, helped me a ton when we were rookie Nautique owners back in 1982, we did some skiing and bare footing back then.   Before we both had children.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tryathlete Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April-05-2023 at 5:22am
I still want to trade up to a 2012 or newer 409 or equivalent powered ski nautique but they probably will just keep climbing out of the comfort zone. I think I’m gonna stay out until the next crapstorm sure to hit the economy and then go on the warpath.

I feel like that Comcast commercial about “we’re settlers” sometimes but at least I snagged a slalom tug that pulls like a mule and doesn’t bounce me into orbit as I cross the wake.
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